AI芯視界

0:01 well good morning everybody uh my name
0:04 is Ryan mole I'm a senior Middle East
0:05 North Africa analyst here with rain
0:07 excuse my clock we uh we live in an old
0:10 older house here and I'm here with our
0:12 senior uh Europe analyst Adriano bassoni
0:16 and we're going to be talking about rain
0:18 networks 2023 forecast uh the major
0:21 geopolitical events and trends that we
0:23 expect to unfold and how we expect them
0:25 to unfold for the coming year so Adriano
0:27 thanks for joining me yeah nice talking
0:30 with you Ryan we were talking backstage
0:32 this is the first time that we do one of
0:33 these together so it's it's nice to
0:35 finally share a Facebook live with you
0:37 yeah yeah it's very exciting that we do
0:40 a little cross collaboration here
0:41 between Nina and Europe from time to
0:43 time as well
0:44 so
0:45 um this is a fascinating annual forecast
0:49 I would say because this is one of those
0:51 very unique years in which
0:55 um we can definitely see overarching
0:58 themes and topics you know every year
1:01 and you and I Ryan we've been working on 1:03 annual forecasts for for a number of 1:05 years now every year it's kind of 1:07 difficult to try to find common themes 1:10 common topics across the entire world 1:12 because here at rain we cover every 1:15 corner of the Earth but in 2023 we will 1:19 definitely see a series of very clear 1:22 events and trends that will pretty much 1:25 impact the entire planet one of those 1:29 um Trends is this will be another year 1:32 of uh war in Ukraine our forecast is 1:36 that there will not be a ceasefire let 1:40 alone uh peace treaty in 2023 because 1:43 the Russians and the ukrainians they 1:45 still think they can extract more 1:47 concessions from the other and make more 1:49 gains on on the ground before actually 1:51 sitting on the negotiating table then 1:54 another common theme will be this will 1:56 be another year of high inflation and 1:59 central banks around the world keeping
2:02 or even hiking interest rates in order
2:05 to fight inflation we have a negative 2:08 impact on economic activities so we will 2:11 see very low growth and in in some cases 2:15 even recessions that's in the global 2:18 North in the global South we will 2:20 probably see 2:22 um energy crisis food crisis sovereign 2:26 debt defaults everything connected to 2:28 the combination of high inflation High 2:30 interest rates uh and overall slowing 2:33 economy so 2:35 um as I said before it's it's it's super 2:38 interesting to us as geopolitical 2:40 analysts to see that there are these 2:43 common 2:44 threats across the world and how they 2:46 impact every every region in a specific 2:48 way yeah and one of one of our top 2:51 forecasts is just about this emergence 2:53 of this multi-polar world in which 2:55 multilateral institutions like the World 2:56 Trade Organization become less relevant 2:59 as as countries seek out their own 3:00 interests and try to develop comparative 3:02 advantages whether that's military or 3:04 economic comparative advantages against 3:06 one another and means that the
3:08 rules-based order that so many people's
3:10 assumptions were built on continues to 3:12 be eroded uh through this year as part 3:14 of that wider Trend that we've been 3:15 seeing uh that we you know at rain have 3:17 been tracking for a long time 3:18 yeah exactly 3:20 um another of the big overarching themes 3:22 that I was mentioning before is the rise 3:25 of protectionism we will see the three 3:28 biggest economies in the world the 3:32 United States the European Union and 3:34 China all implementing their own 3:37 measures to protect their domestic 3:39 Industries to protect their domestic 3:41 workers to Shield themselves from 3:44 competition from from the rest at a time 3:46 of significant Global uncertainty so 3:50 this will have a negative impact on what 3:52 you were saying Ryan on on 3:54 multilateralism global cooperation 3:58 um Global integration this will be a
4:00 year in which a trend will actually move
4:01 in the opposite direction we will see 4:04 some aspects I don't want to exaggerated 4:06 here but some aspects over the 4:09 globalization which is which is to me a 4:11 super interesting development that will 4:14 have an impact in 2023 and Beyond so so 4:19 that's another that's another big one 4:21 and then 4:22 um regarding the the the regions 4:25 um what's the outlook for the Middle 4:28 East and North Africa which is the 4:29 region that that you particularly focus 4:31 on right so like one of the biggest 4:32 things we've been focusing on for years 4:34 is the progress towards the Iranian 4:36 nuclear deal and in 2023 we're not very 4:38 optimistic that we'll see much progress 4:40 there 4:41 um with Iran now supplying the Russians 4:43 with with arms in Ukraine with Iran in 4:45 the midst of a Crackdown against popular 4:47 descent at home 4:48 um the West simply isn't really in a 4:50 mood to negotiate and provide the 4:51 concessions that a hard-line regime like 4:54 Iran wants to see so we expect to see uh 4:56 continued Iranian nuclear development 4:58 they'll be doing advances Israel will
5:00 escalate its covert program uh it says
5:03 of assassinations and occasional strikes 5:05 within Iran itself to try to degrade 5:07 that nuclear program and there's always 5:09 a risk that that spirals out of control 5:11 and why we don't see conflict scenarios 5:13 being the most likely thing we certainly 5:14 do keep it as as a like as a potential 5:17 scenario um as we as we monitor how this 5:20 this kind of Fallen apart uh nuclear 5:23 talks progress 5:25 wow that that that's super interesting 5:27 uh and regarding Europe which is the the 5:29 area that I primarily focus on we will 5:32 see 5:33 it's gonna be a tough year 5:35 um energy supplies are gonna remain 5:37 tight and expensive as I said before 5:40 economic activity will slow down but it 5:44 will happen at a time when labor markets 5:46 are also relatively tight so we will see 5:50 um unions and other groups like pushing 5:52 for higher wages which could also 5:55 trigger wage related inflation and so 5:58 it's going to be a very interesting year
6:00 in in in Europe in which on the one hand
6:02 economic activity remains is slowing 6:05 down but the labor market is still 6:08 strong so workers feel encouraged to ask 6:11 for higher wages which could in turn 6:13 contribute to inflation so it's going to 6:16 be a super interesting year to watch the 6:18 European Union and against this 6:20 background as I said before we will see 6:22 a more protectionist Europe we will see 6:24 the EU 6:26 um allowing member states to protect 6:28 certain sectors of their economies we 6:31 will see the European Union Inc 6:33 increasing oversight of foreign 6:36 investments especially but not only from 6:39 China we will see the European Union 6:41 allowing its member states to maybe 6:44 spend a bit more they will reform their 6:47 their rules on fiscal deficits and debts 6:50 so that member states can spend their 6:52 way out of the economic crisis so it 6:56 will be a year of a more present
7:00 European state if you like but also
7:03 National governments increase in their 7:05 their protection of of the economy so 7:08 that's that's another big Trend that we 7:10 are tracking 7:12 um of course people are interested in in 7:15 Ukraine and Ryan I don't know if you 7:17 have any any additional thoughts um on 7:19 the evolution of the war well you know I 7:22 just contextualized that we have a 7:23 Christmas ceasefire and I would put that 7:25 in quotes right now and this sort of 7:28 ceasefires in quotes is really what our 7:30 Baseline forecast is is continued 7:32 intermittent fighting with two sides who 7:34 militarily uh have trouble making 7:36 advances against one another and that 7:38 will likely likely be the pattern 7:39 through the rest of the year and and 7:41 we're not expecting things like a 7:42 Russian um domestic Uprising that would 7:45 significantly alter Moscow as calculus 7:47 and we're not expecting the West to 7:48 abandon uh Ukraine either which would 7:50 force Kiev into making substantial 7:52 concessions and as long as some of those 7:54 factors remain in place 7:56 um we're looking at a stalemated fight 7:57 in which small parts of territory are 7:59 traded back and forth
8:01 um as the war continues to grind on for
8:03 the year yeah yeah exactly and the final 8:06 topic that I think we should discuss 8:08 before ending 8:09 um this Facebook live is something that 8:11 our clients ask us a lot about which is 8:14 the competition between the United 8:16 States and China especially when it 8:18 comes to technology we will see not only 8:21 a continuation but potentially an 8:23 intensification of that competition as 8:25 the United States reaches out to its 8:28 main Partners like South Korea Japan the 8:31 Netherlands to try to restrict 8:35 um their exports of crucial technology 8:38 like semiconductors but not only to 8:40 China and also the United States willing 8:42 to go it alone if they can't get enough 8:45 support because their partners are a bit 8:46 reluctant to irritating China too much 8:49 the United States will be willing to 8:52 um do even more to try to curtail 8:56 um China's access to technology and I 8:59 insist semiconductors will be the key
9:01 Battleground but it will expand over
9:04 time to other areas like artificial 9:07 intelligence and Quantum Computing and 9:09 and so on and so forth so there's no end 9:12 in sight for that 9:14 um War technological war between the 9:16 United States and China which will also 9:19 Force China to become more 9:21 self-sufficient and heavily pushed to 9:24 develop its own domestic internal 9:27 capabilities to to to to deal with this 9:29 isolation that the United States is 9:31 trying to create so yeah that's that's 9:32 another thing that that we get a lot of 9:34 questions from and speaking of questions 9:36 Ryan I have one for you if you are 9:39 watching this live and you say well 9:40 these two guys are kind of interesting I 9:43 want to read more from them where can 9:44 they find our 9:46 um 2023 annual forecast in particular 9:50 but our coverage on global Affairs in 9:52 general 9:53 so you can find it on our website at uh 9:55 rain worldview and I believe the I 9:57 always have to check the URL for this 9:59 but it's uh well it just popped up right
10:01 there there we go so rain worldview uh
10:03 rainnetwork.com uh world view is our our 10:06 product that you can subscribe to and 10:08 read our annual forecast and get an idea 10:10 of what we're thinking for 2023. 10:12 um I'm not sure Adriana we did just have 10:14 uh one question that popped up about oh 10:16 really yeah 10:18 um and uh and I'd like to see if we can 10:20 have a chance to address it 10:22 um the do you guys see a new Global 10:24 Reserve currency appearing in 2023 and 10:26 I'm not sure if you have any thoughts on 10:28 that 10:29 that's a great question we are actually 10:31 we actually published a story about this 10:34 I think it was today or maybe yesterday 10:36 uh and the short answer is no the long 10:41 answer is that China in particular they 10:44 will push really really heavy to 10:47 increase the internationalization of 10:49 their currency the the the REM will be 10:52 but they are very very far from turning 10:56 it into a global Reserve currency 10:57 because of internal limitations because
11:00 of the of the of their internal
11:01 regulations because of the way that the 11:03 Chinese markets work because of their 11:05 own financial sector which is very 11:07 modest because of their own internal 11:09 Market which is still very modest in 11:11 that regard so no and then we will see 11:14 other countries like India but it's not 11:16 much much earlier stage trying to kind 11:20 of do something similar but the answer 11:22 is no the US dollar will remain by far 11:27 uh the the main research currency which 11:30 gives the US that little extra leverage 11:33 when it comes to issues like sanctions 11:35 or or pressuring other countries so it's 11:38 it's a big leverage it's a big it's a 11:40 big Advantage when you control 11:42 um the the core 11:44 um Global Currency right and I mean as 11:46 we see the multi-polar world unfold over 11:48 the next decade the idea of alternative 11:50 Global Reserve currencies will become 11:52 more viable but it's a slow process the 11:54 US dollar is still very dominant and we 11:56 know that investors don't necessarily 11:58 like to take a risk on currencies that
12:01 might come from governments that
12:02 manipulate them here and there
12:04 um I don't know if anybody else has any
12:06 other questions otherwise
12:08 um I would encourage everyone to please
12:09 uh join you know check out our website
12:11 at rainnetwork.com uh rain worldview
12:14 again that is the product where you can
12:15 find our 2023 forecasts and um we hope
12:18 to see you guys again
12:19 thank you Ryan